Is Spencer Arrighetti a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Spencer Arrighetti's rest-of-season outlook?

5.29 xERA and 12.6% walks — nothing fluky here.

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL-HIGH

Spencer Arrighetti

TOR·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xERA 5.29 +1.19 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90

ROSK 12ERA 4.87WHIP 1.42W 1–3SV 0

Arrighetti is a sell — his expected ERA is a full run above league.

His expected ERA is 5.29, a full run and a fifth above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Worse, it has been stepping up across the sample, not settling down. The walk rate is where the damage starts: 12.6% of batters, well above the league's 8%, and it is stable. He strikes out 21.8% of batters, right at league average, so he is giving away free passes without the swing-and-miss to offset them. His xwOBA allowed of .350 sits .035 above league. His hard-hit rate allowed is low, but the barrels and the walks carry the profile. There is no suppressed BABIP to blame here. Sell. 12 K and a 4.87 ERA ROS is a drag — drop him or leave him as a deep-league streamer.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %21.8%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~24.9% career norm
Walk %12.6%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.29 +1.19 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed30.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —

286 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

286 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.350

lg avg .315 ▲+.035vs his norm —

459 / 200 TBF

xERA5.29

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.19vs his norm —

459 / 200 TBF

ERA5.12

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

103.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %21.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm −3.0% ▼

459 / 70 TBF

Walk %12.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +1.3% ▲

459 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.251

lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

286 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

459 / 60 TBF

Chase %26.5%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —

459 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo92.4 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —

1797 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 21.8%→22.7%signal12 K — K% 21.8% (signal) lifted to career ~24.9% → projected 22.7% over ~13 remaining IP.

xERA 5.29signal4.87 ERA — xERA 5.29 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 47 IP.

BB% 12.6% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…

run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.87 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons