MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Spencer Arrighetti
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Spencer Arrighetti

HOU·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 5.20 is 0.70 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.93
ROSK 52ERA 4.82WHIP 1.41W 5–11SV 0

Arrighetti is a sell-high — ERA is luck, xERA says sell.

His ERA sits at 4.50, but that number is flattered by a BABIP-against of .257 — 38 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 220. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.20, 0.70 runs higher than his actual ERA, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His strikeout rate is near league average, and he walks 12.4% of batters, well above average — limiting batted-ball luck is not a long-term strategy. The contact quality he allows is roughly league average (barrel rate 8.2%, hard-hit rate 31.4%), so there's no deception story to lean on. Regression is coming. Sell high. 52 K with a 4.82 ERA and 1.41 WHIP — this is a streaming-only arm on waivers, not a roster-anywhere asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.8%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~24.9% career norm
  • Walk %12.4%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.20 is 0.70 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —
220 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
220 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
believable since Jun 4.349*
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —
356 / 200 TBF
xERA5.20
5.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.10vs his norm —
356 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
4.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.8%
norm22.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
356 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.4%
norm12.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
356 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.257
.257*
lg avg .295 ▼−.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
220 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
356 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.8%
26.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
356 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
1386 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.8%→23.5%signal52 K — K% 22.8% (signal) lifted to career ~24.9% → projected 23.5% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 5.20signal4.82 ERA — xERA 5.20 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 47 IP.
BB% 12.4% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role5-11 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop52 K ROS, 4.82 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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