MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Spencer Arrighetti
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Spencer Arrighetti

HOU·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Arrighetti is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP-driven, not skill.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.212 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.68 is 3.34 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.8%
29.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL121 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL121 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024too early to trust
NOISE198 / 200 TBF
xERA4.68
4.68
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.58too early to trust
NOISE198 / 200 TBF
ERA1.34
1.34
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.76too early to trust
NOISE47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.7%
21.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL198 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.1%
13.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL198 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.212
.212
lg avg .295 ▼−.083too early to trust
NOISE121 / 800 BIP