Is Spencer Arrighetti a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Spencer Arrighetti's rest-of-season outlook?

13% walk rate with a .248 BABIP propping up the ERA.

week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL-HIGH

Spencer Arrighetti

TOR·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xERA 5.30 +1.20 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90

ROSK 0ERA 4.88WHIP 1.43W 0–0SV 0

Arrighetti is a sell — hittable, wild, and getting worse.

His expected ERA is 5.30, a full 1.2 runs above the league average of 4.10, and the sample behind it is past the point where the number becomes reliable. There is no luck excuse to fall back on. His walk rate is 13%, five points above league, and that is a stable flaw — 492 batters faced is more than enough to trust it. His strikeout rate sits at 21.5%, right at league, so he is not missing bats enough to offset the free passes. The expected wOBA allowed is .349, well above the league mark of .315. His expected ERA has been climbing across the sample, which makes the case grimmer rather than better. The skill is below league and it is getting worse. Sell. A 4.88 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with zero strikeouts ROS is waiver fodder — drop him and stream the roster spot.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %21.5%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~24.9% career norm
Walk %13.0%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.30 +1.20 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed31.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —

306 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —

306 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.349

lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —

492 / 200 TBF

xERA5.30

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.20vs his norm —

492 / 200 TBF

ERA4.96

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.86vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

110.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %21.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −3.4% ▼

492 / 70 TBF

Walk %13.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm +1.7% ▲

492 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.248

lg avg .295 ▼−.047vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

306 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

492 / 60 TBF

Chase %26.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —

492 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo92.4 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —

1942 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 21.5%→22.5%signal0 K — K% 21.5% (signal) lifted to career ~24.9% → projected 22.5% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 5.30signal4.88 ERA — xERA 5.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 47 IP.

BB% 13.0% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 6…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.88 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons