Rest of Season Projection
SpencerCategoryTrevor
87K ←74
4.54ERA →4.07
1.44WHIP →1.30
9–19W ←4–8
0SV0
Current Season
SpencerCategoryTrevor
43K ←27
1.34ERA ←4.34
1.13WHIP →1.07
7W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Spencer Arrighetti
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.234 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.77 is 2.56 above the ERA — regression coming
Trevor McDonald
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.75)
Spencer Arrighetti: 88 K / 4.53 ERA. Trevor McDonald: 75 K / 4.07 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).