HOU

xwOBA .442 backed by 53.8% hard-hit, 15.9% barrels.

96 mph heat, 27.5% Ks, and xERA backs every bit

ERA 4.79 masks a 3.42 xERA and 95 mph heat.

xERA 3.7 beats league 4.1; ERA nearly matches it, no fluke

6.00 ERA hides 4.15 xERA; .365 BABIP-against won't hold.

5.19 ERA hides a 4.09 xERA; .321 BABIP is the culprit

61.5% hard-hit with .220 BABIP — contact deserves better.

.230 BABIP fuels 2.13 ERA, but xERA sits at 3.13

0.188 BABIP-against won't hold; xERA already 1.93.

0.255 BABIP masks a 4.27 xERA and 10.5% walk rate.

BABIP-against .260 masks a modest 18.7% strikeout rate

.316 wOBA over a .246 xwOBA, 1.7% barrels — all BABIP luck.

29.9% Ks but 15.3% walks undercut the 3.73 ERA

.208 BABIP masks a 16.4% strikeout rate and 4.42 xERA

23.9% hard-hit behind a .277 wOBA — contact won't hold

10% walks, xERA 4.95 — nothing but the free pass carrying him

10.1% walk rate and xERA 4.76 — nothing lucky here.

xwOBA .233 with a 22.6% hard-hit — soft contact kills

28.7% K rate undone by 15.1% walks allowed.

31.8% strikeouts with a .261 xwOBA — bat can't hold up.

85.6 mph exit velo — the contact is hollowing out.

xwOBA .283, exit velo 86.7 — quiet bat, no luck gap

32% strikeouts with an 88.5 mph bat won't play.