week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Cristian Javier
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.367 elevated and unstable, the 9.37 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 6.77 is +2.67 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Javier is a hold — skill is below average but ERA is worse.
ROS projects K 4 YTD → 19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.9%—−9.7% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.367 elevated and unstable — the 9.37 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 6.77 is +2.67 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.389
lg avg .315 ▲+.074vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 200 TBF
xERA6.77
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.67vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 200 TBF
ERA9.37
lg avg 4.10 ▲+5.27vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm −9.7% ▼
83 / 70 TBF
Walk %18.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+10.1%vs his norm +8.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.1% norm — expect it to fall.
83 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.367
lg avg .295 ▲+.072vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
83 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
83 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
325 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.9%→23.7%signal19 K — K% 16.9% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 23.7% over ~32 remaining IP.
xERA 6.77noise4.10 ERA — xERA 6.77 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 9 IP.
BB% 18.1% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 18% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.96 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop19 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.