72 PA · week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Joey Loperfido
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
Sell High strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.381 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.270 is 0.038 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.65 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .217R 23RBI 23SB 3
Loperfido is a sell-high — BABIP is doing all the work.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.381 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.270 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is above the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to fall.
42 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm +0.3% ▲Barrel % is above his ~4.5% norm — expect it to fall.
42 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 160 PA
wOBA.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —
72 / 60 PA
Walk %11.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
72 / 120 PA
BABIP.381
lg avg .295 ▲+.086vs his norm +.032 ▲BABIP is above his ~.349 norm — expect it to fall.
42 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.8%→4.6%noise3 HR — Barrel% 4.8% (noise) tempered to career ~4.5% → projected 4.6%.
BABIP 0.381→0.315 regressednoise.217 AVG — BABIP 0.381 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.311 (xBA 0.218) → 0.315.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~232 projected PA.
slugging + lineup23 RBI — his RBI rate over ~232 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (1 in 21 G) over ~232 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.