week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
AJ Blubaugh
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.95 is 0.80 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.86WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Blubaugh is a sell-high — the ERA is riding a lucky BABIP
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.3%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~22.4% career norm
- Walk %9.6%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~11.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.95 is 0.80 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
239 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
239 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
366 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —
366 / 200 TBF
ERA3.15
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
88.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
366 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
366 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
239 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
366 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
366 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
1503 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.3%→23.6%signal4 K — K% 24.3% (signal) tempered to career ~22.4% → projected 23.6% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95signal3.86 ERA — xERA 3.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.86 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.