MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of AJ Blubaugh
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

AJ Blubaugh

HOU·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.27 is 0.61 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.89
ROSK 0ERA 4.07WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Blubaugh is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.

His BABIP-against is .255, 40 points below the league average of .295, and that gap is the thing holding his 3.66 ERA together. Balls in play against him are finding gloves at a rate that will not last — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 262, so the number is still luck-driven, not a skill he owns. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 4.27, .61 above what the scoreboard shows, and that gap has been widening as the sample grows. The contact profile confirms it: barrels allowed at 10.3% against a league average of 8.0%, walks at 10.5% against 8.0%, with the strikeouts only slightly above league. The underlying skill is fringe-average. The surface is not. Sell high. Projected 0 K / 4.07 ERA at 1.32 WHIP is replacement-level — a sell-window, not a hold, and a drop once the market wises up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.4%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~22.4% career norm
  • Walk %10.5%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~11.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.27 is 0.61 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%
37.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
262 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
262 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
believable since Jun 21.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
401 / 200 TBF
xERA4.27
4.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.17vs his norm —
401 / 200 TBF
ERA3.66
3.66*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.44vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.4%
norm23.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
401 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
norm10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
401 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.255
.255*
lg avg .295 ▼−.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
262 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
13.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
401 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.8%
28.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
401 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
1640 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.4%→23.1%signal0 K — K% 23.4% (signal) tempered to career ~22.4% → projected 23.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.27signal4.07 ERA — xERA 4.27 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.07 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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