MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of AJ Blubaugh
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

AJ Blubaugh

HOU·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.04); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 20ERA 3.92WHIP 1.37W 1–2SV 0

Blubaugh is a hold — league-average skill, no edge either way.

His xERA is 4.04, within a hair of the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .312, also near league average. The underlying skill metrics don't point to a breakout or a regression: his strikeout rate is slightly above league average but his walk rate is well above it, limiting the upside. His hard-hit rate allowed is below league average, but his barrel rate allowed is right at league average. BABIP is not a factor either way. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, narrowing the gap with his surface ERA, but he still profiles as a roughly average pitcher with no luck-driven distortion. There is no signal to buy or sell. Hold. 20 K with a 3.92 ERA and 1.37 WHIP — a deep-league streaming-only option at best.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.6%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~22.4% career norm
  • Walk %11.8%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~11.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.04)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —
163 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
163 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
believable since Jun 21.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
254 / 200 TBF
xERA4.04
4.04*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.06vs his norm —
254 / 200 TBF
ERA3.75
3.75*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.35vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
norm23.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
254 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
norm11.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
254 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
.253*
lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
163 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
254 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
254 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.6 mph
95.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
1039 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→23.1%signal20 K — K% 23.6% (signal) tempered to career ~22.4% → projected 23.1% over ~27 remaining…
xERA 4.04signal3.92 ERA — xERA 4.04 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 11.8% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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