week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Steven Okert
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.13 is 1.00 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.13WHIP 1.11W 0–0SV 0
Okert is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %5.4%—−3.7% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm
- Strikeout %26.1%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.13 is 1.00 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.274
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —
261 / 200 TBF
xERA3.13
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —
261 / 200 TBF
ERA2.13
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
67.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
261 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −3.7% ▼
261 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.230
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
175 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
261 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
261 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.8 mphvs his norm —
1050 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.1%→26.3%signal0 K — K% 26.1% (signal) held to career ~26.6% → projected 26.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.13signal3.13 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.13 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.4% + contactsignal1.11 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.11 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.