week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH
Kai-Wei Teng
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 30, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.51WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0
Teng is a sell — his expected ERA runs a full run high.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.2%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~24.6% career norm
- Walk %10.0%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~12.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
210 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
329 / 200 TBF
xERA4.95
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —
329 / 200 TBF
ERA4.76
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
73.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
329 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
329 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.296
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
210 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
329 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.5%
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
329 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
1266 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.2%→23.1%signal0 K — K% 22.2% (signal) lifted to career ~24.6% → projected 23.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.95signal4.51 ERA — xERA 4.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 42 IP.
BB% 10.0% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.51 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.