MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kai-Wei Teng
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

Kai-Wei Teng

HOU·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.58 +0.48 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.69
ROSK 34ERA 4.27WHIP 1.35W 1–3SV 0

Teng is a sell — below-average skill, no luck excuse.

His expected xERA is 4.58, half a run above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. That gap is not an unlucky bounce — it is the skill. His BABIP-against is not elevated, so the ERA is not hiding a better pitcher. His walk rate is 10%, two points above league average, and his strikeout rate is just 22.5%, barely above average. The fastball velocity sits at 93.5 mph, a tick below league. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, which means the trend is not your friend. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. Sell. 34 K / 4.27 ERA / 1.35 WHIP — a streaming-only arm even in deep leagues, and not a must-roster hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.0%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~12.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.5%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~24.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.58 +0.48 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.7%
40.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
182 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
182 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
believable since Jun 11.330*
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
280 / 200 TBF
xERA4.58
4.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.48vs his norm —
280 / 200 TBF
ERA4.36
4.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.26vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
280 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
norm10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
280 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
182 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
280 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
280 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
1074 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→23.4%signal34 K — K% 22.5% (signal) lifted to career ~24.6% → projected 23.4% over ~32 remaining IP.
xERA 4.58signal4.27 ERA — xERA 4.58 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 42 IP.
BB% 10.0% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.27 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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