MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Bennett Sousa

HOU·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.15 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.365 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Sousa is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm.

His ERA is 6.00, but that number is being built on his BABIP-against: .365, seventy points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 91. That gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Strip the noise and his expected ERA is 4.15, right at the league average of 4.10. There is a real arm here: he strikes out 22.7% of batters and gets swings on 15.2% of pitches, well above the league's 11%, and his 94 mph fastball is holding. The sample is thin on baselines, so this call rests on the first stable read of the season. The surface and the skill will find each other. Buy low. With a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP ROS, buying low is a deep-league stash — not a must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.7%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~24.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.15 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.365 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.3%
36.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
91 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
91 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
141 / 200 TBF
xERA4.15
4.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
141 / 200 TBF
ERA6.00
6.00*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.90vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
30 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
norm22.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
141 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.8%
norm12.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm +3.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.3% norm — expect it to fall.
141 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.365
.365*
lg avg .295 ▲+.070vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
91 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
15.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
141 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
141 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
533 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→23.8%signal0 K — K% 22.7% (signal) lifted to career ~24.6% → projected 23.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.15noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.15 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 3 IP.
BB% 12.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.58 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups