63 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Zach Dezenzo
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 38% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.271); BABIP 0.375 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .205HR 4R 13RBI 5SB 0
Dezenzo is a hold — league-average skill, but the K rate caps him.
ROS projects AVG .200 YTD → .205 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.271)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 38% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.375 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo82.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−6.6 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
33 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %24.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.8%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
33 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm −1.8% ▼Barrel % is below his ~13.9% norm — expect it to rise.
33 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
63 / 160 PA
wOBA.292
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
63 / 200 PA
Strikeout %38.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+16.1%vs his norm —
63 / 60 PA
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
63 / 120 PA
BABIP.375
lg avg .295 ▲+.080vs his norm +.014 ▲BABIP is above his ~.361 norm — expect it to fall.
33 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
63 / 50 PA
Chase %28.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
63 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.1%→13.6%noise4 HR — Barrel% 12.1% (noise) lifted to career ~13.9% → projected 13.6%.
BABIP 0.375→0.303 regressednoise.205 AVG — BABIP 0.375 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.299 (xBA 0.205) → 0.303.
on-base + lineup13 R — his run rate over ~130 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~130 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 20 G) over ~130 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.