83 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Zach Dezenzo
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 30, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 39% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.248); BABIP 0.349 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Dezenzo is a hold — league average bat, capped by strikeouts
ROS projects AVG .200 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.248)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 39% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.349 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.1 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
44 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.2%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
44 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm −4.8% ▼Barrel % is below his ~13.9% norm — expect it to rise.
44 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.248
lg avg .315 ▼−.067vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
83 / 160 PA
wOBA.262
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
83 / 200 PA
Strikeout %38.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+16.6%vs his norm —
83 / 60 PA
Walk %8.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
83 / 120 PA
BABIP.349
lg avg .295 ▲+.054vs his norm −.012 ▼BABIP is below his ~.361 norm — expect it to rise.
44 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
83 / 50 PA
Chase %34.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
83 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.1%→13.0%noise0 HR — Barrel% 9.1% (noise) lifted to career ~13.9% → projected 13.0%.
BABIP 0.349→0.280 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.349 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.276 (xBA 0.191) → 0.280.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 20 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.