MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Ethan Pecko

HOU·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.235 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 6.59 is 1.40 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 11ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Pecko is a sell-high — his ERA is hiding behind a .235 BABIP

His BABIP-against is .235, 60 points below the league average of .295, and that is the number holding his ERA down. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 55. That gap is luck, not skill, and it is the only reason his 5.19 ERA looks as good as it does — his expected ERA is 6.59, a run and a half worse. The strikeout rate is the real problem. At 14.3%, it is stable and far below league average, and it has been stepping down across the sample. Nothing in his profile misses bats. The ERA will climb toward the expected number, and it should climb a lot. Sell high. 11 K and 4.10 ERA ROS is streaming-only at best — sell the mirage before regression drags this fringe arm to the waiver wire.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.235 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.59 is 1.40 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.6%
43.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
55 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.384
.384*
lg avg .315 ▲+.069vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 200 TBF
xERA6.59
6.59*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.49vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 200 TBF
ERA5.19
5.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
17.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm —
77 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.0%
13.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.235
.235*
lg avg .295 ▼−.060vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
77 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
28.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
77 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
341 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.3%→15.8%signal11 K — K% 14.3% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 15.8% over ~9 remaining IP.
xERA 6.59noise4.10 ERA — xERA 6.59 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 4 IP.
BB% 13.0% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.70 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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