week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Ethan Pecko
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.208 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.42 is 0.49 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.75 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Pecko is a sell-high — his ERA is running on suppressed BABIP
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.208 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.42 is 0.49 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
101 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
140 / 200 TBF
xERA4.42
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
140 / 200 TBF
ERA3.93
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.17vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —
140 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
140 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.208
lg avg .295 ▼−.087vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
101 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
140 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
140 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
572 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.4%→17.5%signal0 K — K% 16.4% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 17.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.42noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 4 IP.
BB% 10.0% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.