week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
Peter Lambert
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.38, 0.72 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 47ERA 3.38WHIP 1.30W 3–7SV 0
Lambert is a buy — skill-driven production, no luck needed.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.9%—+5.6% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm
- Walk %9.3%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.38, 0.72 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
234 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
234 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.287
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
354 / 200 TBF
xERA3.38
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.72vs his norm —
354 / 200 TBF
ERA3.14
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +5.6% ▲
354 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
354 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.233
lg avg .295 ▼−.062vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
234 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
354 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
354 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1426 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.9%→20.9%signal47 K — K% 22.9% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 20.9% over ~54 remaining…
xERA 3.38signal3.38 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.38 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.3% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep47 K ROS, 3.38 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.