MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Peter Lambert
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Peter Lambert

HOU·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.72
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Lambert is a buy — the contact suppression is earned

His expected ERA is 3.70, .40 below league, and he has faced 664 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing propping it up, either. His xwOBA allowed of .297 sits below the league's .315, and the contact quality behind it backs him: a 35.5% hard-hit rate against a 40.0% league average and a 6.8% barrel rate against 8.0%. He misses bats, striking out 23.2% with a 12.4% swinging-strike rate, both a touch above league. The trajectory is the tell — his expected ERA has stepped down as the sample has grown, which is what a pitcher looks like when he is getting better, not luckier. The production is his. Buy. 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.32 WHIP is a deep-league asset, not a must-add — stash the ratio help and wait on the strikeouts.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.2%—+5.9% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm
  • Walk %8.9%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~9.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.5%
35.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
439 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
439 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
believable since Jun 6.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
664 / 200 TBF
xERA3.70
3.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.40vs his norm —
664 / 200 TBF
ERA3.82
3.82*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
155.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.2%
norm23.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm +5.9% ▲
664 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
664 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
439 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
12.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
664 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
664 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
93.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
2643 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.2%→21.8%signal0 K — K% 23.2% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 21.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.70signal3.70 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.70 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.9% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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