MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Josh Hader

HOU·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.188 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 1.93 is 0.92 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0

Hader is a sell-high — the 1.01 ERA leans on BABIP luck

His ERA is 1.01, and it will not stay anywhere near that. The number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .188, more than 100 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 97. That gap is luck, not command. His expected ERA is 1.93, nearly a full run above what the box score shows, and even that expected figure sits against a tiny sample — this is an early-season read with no career baseline to lean on. The strikeout rate at 32.9%, the swinging strikes at 18.5%, and the chase rate at 41.1% all say the stuff is genuine. They do not say the run prevention is this good. Sell high. The 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP line is the honest projection; deep-league trade asset, move the inflated price before it corrects.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %32.9%—−8.2% ▼vs his ~41.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.188 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 1.93 is 0.92 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.215
.215*
lg avg .315 ▼−.100vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 200 TBF
xERA1.93
1.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.17vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 200 TBF
ERA1.01
1.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.09vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
44.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %32.9%
norm32.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.9%vs his norm −8.2% ▼
167 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −0.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.8% norm — expect it to rise.
167 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.188
.188*
lg avg .295 ▼−.107vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.5%
18.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Chase %41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.6%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
676 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 32.9%→37.4%signal0 K — K% 32.9% (signal) lifted to career ~41.1% → projected 37.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 1.93noise3.70 ERA — xERA 1.93 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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