MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Josh Hader

HOU·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP-against 0.181 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 1.77 is 0.88 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.90
ROSK 4ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 2–7

Hader is a sell-high — the 0.89 ERA is BABIP luck.

His ERA is 0.89, and that number is being held up by something that will not last. His BABIP-against is .181, well below the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable while he has 84. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 1.77, though that number is also early, so the honest read is limited data on both sides of the gap. What is reliable is the stuff: he strikes out 35.8% of batters, gets swings on 19.1% of pitches, and allows a 32.1% hard-hit rate. The strikeout skill is real; the 0.89 ERA is not. Sell high. A 2-7 SV, 4 K ROS line is a deep-league sell-high window, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %35.8%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~41.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.181 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 1.77 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
84 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
84 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.206
.206*
lg avg .315 ▼−.109vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
148 / 200 TBF
xERA1.77
1.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.33vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
148 / 200 TBF
ERA0.89
0.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.21vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %35.8%
norm35.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+13.8%vs his norm −5.3% ▼
148 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −2.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.8% norm — expect it to rise.
148 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.181
.181*
lg avg .295 ▼−.114vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.1%
19.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Chase %41.5%
41.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.0%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
95.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
597 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 35.8%→38.9%signal4 K — K% 35.8% (signal) lifted to career ~41.1% → projected 38.9% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 1.77noise3.70 ERA — xERA 1.77 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.05 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)2-7 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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