MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mike Burrows
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Mike Burrows

HOU·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from BUY-LOW
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.77 is +0.67 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable, the 5.99 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 54ERA 4.54WHIP 1.41W 2–4SV 0

Burrows is a hold — ERA is noise, skill is below average.

His 5.99 ERA is worse than he actually pitches, but the regressed version is still below-average. The difference is BABIP-against: .316, 21 points above league average, on just 309 balls in play. BABIP-against needs around 800 to stabilize, so that gap is luck inflating the ERA. Strip it out and his xERA is 4.77 — still 0.67 runs above the league average of 4.10. His xwOBA allowed is .336, .021 above league, and his strikeout rate is 17.7% against a league average of 22.0%. The stuff grade is middling. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, confirming that the underlying skill is not a buy signal. The surface overstates the damage, but the destination is a below-average pitcher. Hold. 54 K with a 4.54 ERA and 1.41 WHIP make him a deep-league streamer at best — drop in standard formats.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.7%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~22.1% career norm
  • Walk %8.3%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — the 5.99 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.77 is +0.67 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
309 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
309 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.336
.336*
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
423 / 200 TBF
xERA4.77
4.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.67vs his norm —
423 / 200 TBF
ERA5.99
5.99*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.89vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
94.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.7%
norm17.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
423 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
423 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
.316*
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
309 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
423 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
32.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
423 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
95.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
1567 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.7%→19.1%signal54 K — K% 17.7% (signal) lifted to career ~22.1% → projected 19.1% over ~58 remaining IP.
xERA 4.77signal4.54 ERA — xERA 4.77 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop54 K ROS, 4.54 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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