week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW
Mike Burrows
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from BUY-LOW
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.82 is +0.72 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable, the 5.99 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.57WHIP 1.41W 0–0SV 0
Burrows is a hold — the ERA overstates it, the skill undercuts it
ROS projects K 54 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 5.40 YTD → 4.57 ROS, WHIP 1.45 YTD → 1.41 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.7%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~22.1% career norm
- Walk %8.3%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — the 5.99 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.82 is +0.72 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
309 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
309 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —
423 / 200 TBF
xERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —
423 / 200 TBF
ERA5.99
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.89vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
94.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
423 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
423 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
309 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
423 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
423 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
1567 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.7%→19.1%signal0 K — K% 17.7% (signal) lifted to career ~22.1% → projected 19.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.82signal4.57 ERA — xERA 4.82 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.57 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.