MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mike Burrows
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Mike Burrows

HOU·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from BUY-LOW
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.78 is +0.68 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable, the 5.99 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 12ERA 4.54WHIP 1.41W 0–1SV 0

Burrows is a hold — the ERA overstates it, the skill is below league

His ERA sits at 5.99, and that number is worse than the pitching underneath it. The stat driving the damage is his BABIP-against, .316 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 309, so that gap is luck, not a signal about his stuff. But regress the luck away and the picture does not turn into a bargain — his expected ERA is 4.78, .68 above the league average of 4.10, and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. He strikes out just 17.7% of batters, below the 22% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate of 10.7% is a touch under league. The panic on the surface ERA is misplaced; the case for buying it is not there. Hold. 12 K and a 4.54 ERA ROS is deep-league streaming-only filler; hold the status quo, but he's not worth a real roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.7%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~22.1% career norm
  • Walk %8.3%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — the 5.99 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.78 is +0.68 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
309 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
309 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
.335*
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —
423 / 200 TBF
xERA4.78
4.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.68vs his norm —
423 / 200 TBF
ERA5.99
5.99*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.89vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
94.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.7%
norm17.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
423 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
423 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
.316*
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
309 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
423 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
32.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
423 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
95.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
1567 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.7%→19.1%signal12 K — K% 17.7% (signal) lifted to career ~22.1% → projected 19.1% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.78signal4.54 ERA — xERA 4.78 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.54 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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