week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Bryan Abreu
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.03); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 27ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 2–4
Abreu is a hold — league-average skill, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 23 YTD → 27 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.2%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~32.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.03)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.7%vs his norm —
73 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
73 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
lg avg .315 ▲+.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 TBF
xERA5.03
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.93vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 TBF
ERA5.81
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.71vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm −4.0% ▼
142 / 70 TBF
Walk %18.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+10.3%vs his norm +6.7% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.6% norm — expect it to fall.
142 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
73 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
575 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.2%→30.6%signal27 K — K% 28.2% (signal) lifted to career ~32.2% → projected 30.6% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 5.03noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.03 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 18.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 18% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.70 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep6 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.