MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
573 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jose Altuve

HOU·2B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xwOBA 0.271 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Altuve is a sell — the contact is gone, and the sample knows it.

He is averaging 85.6 mph off the bat, three and a half miles per hour below league average, and that number is based on 415 batted balls — well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. The rest of the profile agrees with it: a 31.3% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%, and 4.1% barrels against 8.0%. His expected wOBA is .271, .044 below the league mark, and it has been stepping down across the sample rather than leveling off. There is no luck story to soften this — his actual wOBA of .308 sits close enough to the expected figure that the surface is not masking anything. The strikeout and walk rates are fine; they just do not create power. This is the level he is at now. Sell. Projected 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG is waiver-wire math — a drop-tier fade, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.1%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.271 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.6 mph
85.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
415 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.3%
31.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.7%vs his norm —
415 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.1%
norm4.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
415 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.271
.271*
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
573 / 160 PA
wOBA.308
.308*
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
573 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.9%
19.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
573 / 60 PA
Walk %7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
573 / 120 PA
BABIP.289
norm.289*
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm −.030 ▼BABIP is below his ~.319 norm — expect it to rise.
415 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
573 / 50 PA
Chase %37.2%
37.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.7%vs his norm —
573 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.1%→5.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.1% (signal) lifted to career ~6.8% → projected 5.0%.
BABIP 0.289→0.273 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.256 (xBA 0.224) → 0.273.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 43 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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