216 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jeremy Peña
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.342) — BABIP 0.321 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .277HR 2R 25RBI 13SB 5
Peña is a hold — league average, stable, nothing to act on.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .272 YTD → .277 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %3.7%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~5.8% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.342)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.321 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
162 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.342
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
216 / 160 PA
wOBA.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
216 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
216 / 60 PA
Walk %6.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
216 / 120 PA
BABIP.321
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm −.001 ▼BABIP is below his ~.322 norm — expect it to rise.
162 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
216 / 50 PA
Chase %34.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
216 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.7%→4.8%signal2 HR — Barrel% 3.7% (signal) lifted to career ~5.8% → projected 4.8%.
BABIP 0.321→0.323 regressednoise.277 AVG — BABIP 0.321 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.324 (xBA 0.294) → 0.323.
on-base + lineup25 R — his run rate over ~168 projected PA.
slugging + lineup13 RBI — his RBI rate over ~168 projected PA.
run rate / role5 SB — his steal rate (3 in 23 G) over ~168 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.