week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Bryan King
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.09 sits 0.01 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.321 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.95WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0–0
King is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.3%—−6.0% ▼vs his ~24.3% career norm
- Walk %8.3%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~6.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.09 sits 0.01 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.321 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
198 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
198 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
278 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
278 / 200 TBF
ERA5.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
60.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −6.0% ▼
278 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
278 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.321
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
198 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
278 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
278 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
1067 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→20.8%signal0 K — K% 18.3% (signal) lifted to career ~24.3% → projected 20.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal3.95 ERA — xERA 4.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop6 SV, 3.95 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.