week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Bryan King
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.04); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20WHIP 1.25ERA 3.72W 0–0SV 4–7
King is a hold — league average with no edge either way.
ROS projects K 19 YTD → 20 ROS, WHIP 1.30 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.9%—−6.4% ▼vs his ~24.3% career norm
- Walk %8.7%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~6.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.04)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
131 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 200 TBF
xERA4.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.06vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 200 TBF
ERA2.93
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.17vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
43 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −6.4% ▼
184 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
184 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
184 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
184 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
697 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.9%→21.2%signal20 K — K% 17.9% (signal) lifted to career ~24.3% → projected 21.2% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 4.04noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.04 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)4-7 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep11 SV, 3.72 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.