week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Tatsuya Imai
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.60 +0.50 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.70 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.42WHIP 1.44W 0–0SV 0
Imai is a sell — his expected ERA is climbing, not his skill
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.7%—+6.5% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
- Walk %15.1%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~15.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.60 +0.50 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
186 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
186 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
338 / 200 TBF
xERA4.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —
338 / 200 TBF
ERA4.93
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.83vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
76.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm +6.5% ▲
338 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
338 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
186 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
338 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
338 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
1451 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.7%→26.3%signal0 K — K% 28.7% (signal) tempered to career ~22.2% → projected 26.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.60signal4.42 ERA — xERA 4.60 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 29 IP.
BB% 15.1% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.42 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.