Tatsuya Imai
Imai is a sell — skill is below league, no luck to blame.
His expected ERA is 5.06, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and 233 batters faced is enough to trust that number. His actual ERA may or may not be lower — but either way, the skill is not there. He allows a 45.9% hard-hit rate and 10.5% barrel rate, both above acceptable levels, and that contact quality is stable after 133 batted ball events. The one bright spot is a 27% strikeout rate, well above league average, but it comes with a 14.2% walk rate — more than six points above average — and the swing-and-miss (13.6%) is good, but batters are not chasing (27.2%, below average). The xERA has been stepping up over the sample, meaning things are getting worse, not better. There is no bad luck story here; this is simply a pitcher who gives up hard contact and walks too many. Sell. 41 K, 4.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP: a streaming-only arm whose walk rate makes any deep-league trust a gamble.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.0%—+4.8% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
- Walk %14.2%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~15.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.06 +0.96 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
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