Is Tatsuya Imai a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Tatsuya Imai's rest-of-season outlook?

27.9% K rate undercut by 14.9% walks, xERA 4.78

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Tatsuya Imai

HOU·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xERA 4.78 +0.68 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.75

ROSK 9ERA 4.54WHIP 1.45W 0–1SV 0

Imai is a sell — expected ERA is a run above league

His xERA is 4.78, .68 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. It has been stepping up across the sample, not settling down. The contact he allows backs it: a .335 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, a 45.5% hard-hit rate against 40%, and 9.7% barrels against 8%, all past the point where those numbers stabilize. His strikeout rate of 27.9% is genuinely above league and his swinging-strike rate of 14.1% supports it, so there is real stuff here. The walk rate of 14.9% nearly doubles the league average of 8%, and that is the leak that keeps his expected ERA where it is. The stuff is real but it is not turning into run prevention. His BABIP-against is near league average, so there is no luck story to fall back on. This is the level he is at. Sell. 9 K and a 4.54 ERA ROS is streaming-only waiver fodder — drop him.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %27.9%—+5.7% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
Walk %14.9%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~15.9% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.78 +0.68 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed45.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —

176 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —

176 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.335

lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —

315 / 200 TBF

xERA4.78

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.68vs his norm —

315 / 200 TBF

ERA5.35

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.25vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

70.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %27.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm +5.7% ▲

315 / 70 TBF

Walk %14.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.9%vs his norm −1.0% ▼

315 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.289

lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

176 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %14.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —

315 / 60 TBF

Chase %27.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —

315 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo94.8 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —

1356 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 27.9%→25.7%signal9 K — K% 27.9% (signal) tempered to career ~22.2% → projected 25.7% over ~11 remaining IP.

xERA 4.78signal4.54 ERA — xERA 4.78 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 29 IP.

BB% 14.9% + contactsignal1.45 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.53 skill WHIP, blended 6…

run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop9 K ROS, 4.54 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons