week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Hayden Wesneski
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.89 is 0.39 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.89WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0
Wesneski is a sell-high — his low ERA is BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.7%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~22.7% career norm
- Walk %8.7%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.89 is 0.39 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
157 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
157 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
ERA3.50
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.60vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
54 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm −4.0% ▼
219 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
219 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.257
lg avg .295 ▼−.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.0%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
816 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.7%→20.6%signal0 K — K% 18.7% (signal) lifted to career ~22.7% → projected 20.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.89 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.89 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.89 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.