MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Enyel De Los Santos
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Enyel De Los Santos

HOU·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.42, 0.68 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.80
ROSK 0ERA 3.42WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0–0

De Los Santos is a buy — earned run prevention, no luck involved

His expected ERA is 3.42, .68 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 301 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing on his line depends on luck. His BABIP-against is near league average, so the run prevention is coming from his stuff, not from batted balls finding gloves. The stuff backs it up: 14.6% swinging strikes against an 11.0% league average, a 33.4% chase rate, and a 6.6% walk rate. His fastball is averaging 95.1 mph, above league, and the velocity has been stepping up across the sample. That is a pitcher adding to his margin rather than holding onto one. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. Deep-league asset: 0 K, 3.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP is a ratio floor, and the whiff rate keeps it there — add now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.6%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~8.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.3%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~24.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.42, 0.68 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
37.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
213 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.6%
5.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
213 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
believable since Jul 27.286*
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —
301 / 200 TBF
xERA3.42
3.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —
301 / 200 TBF
ERA4.79
4.79*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.69vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
71.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
norm22.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
301 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
norm6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
301 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
.290*
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
213 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
301 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
301 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
1153 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→23.0%signal0 K — K% 22.3% (signal) lifted to career ~24.1% → projected 23.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.42signal3.42 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.42 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.42 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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