MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Hunter Brown

HOU·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy stable xERA 3.32, 0.78 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 3.32WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0

Brown is a buy — the strikeouts and the stuff are both real.

His expected ERA is 3.32, .78 of a run below the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down across the sample — the run prevention is earned, not sequenced. He strikes out 27.5% of the batters he faces, five and a half points above league, and he is doing it at 96.2 mph with a fastball that has been ticking up rather than fading. The contact he allows backs it up: a .282 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league mark, a 36.9% hard-hit rate allowed that sits below the 40% league average, and a 6.0% barrel rate against 8.0%. The 12.2% walk rate is the one soft spot and it is above league, so the WHIP will not always be pretty. The skill underneath is not going anywhere. Buy. A 3.32 ERA with 1.36 WHIP keeps this a deep-league asset, not a waiver drag — acquire now before the window shuts.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %12.2%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~8.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %27.5%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~27.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.32, 0.78 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
268 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
268 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.282
.282*
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —
451 / 200 TBF
xERA3.32
3.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.78vs his norm —
451 / 200 TBF
ERA3.19
3.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.91vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
107.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.5%
norm27.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
451 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
norm12.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
451 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
268 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
451 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
451 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.2 mph
96.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.2 mphvs his norm —
1881 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.5%→27.3%signal0 K — K% 27.5% (signal) tempered to career ~27.0% → projected 27.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.32signal3.32 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.32 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 12.2% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.32 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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