MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Hunter Brown

HOU·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
flipped from HOLD on July 28, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.66, 0.44 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.73
ROSK 64ERA 3.66WHIP 1.44W 2–5SV 0

Hunter Brown is a buy — true skill, no luck inflated.

His expected ERA sits at 3.66, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The xERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the skill is trending in the right direction. His strikeout rate of 25% is above league average, and he allows barrels just 5.9% of the time, well below the 8.0% average. The one blemish is his walk rate — 14%, nearly double the league average — which inflates pitch counts but has not undone the rest of his game. His fastball velocity has been stepping up across the sample, now at 96.1 mph, a clear edge. There is no luck story here: xERA and the underlying contact numbers all point to a pitcher who is earning his production. Buy. His 64 K and 3.66 ERA line makes him a deep-league asset; buy the development trajectory now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %14.0%—+5.7% ▲vs his ~8.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %25.0%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~27.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.66, 0.44 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.8%
39.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
118 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
118 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
believable since Jul 26.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
200 / 200 TBF
xERA3.66
3.66*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.44vs his norm —
200 / 200 TBF
ERA3.45
3.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.65vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
norm25.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
200 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.0%
norm14.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm +5.7% ▲
200 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.239
.239*
lg avg .295 ▼−.056vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
118 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
200 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.2%
26.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
200 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
822 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→26.0%signal64 K — K% 25.0% (signal) lifted to career ~27.0% → projected 26.0% over ~39 remaining IP.
xERA 3.66signal3.66 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.66 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 14.0% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep64 K ROS, 3.66 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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