MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Isaac Paredes
587 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Isaac Paredes

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.320); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .226HR 0R 4RBI 5SB 0

Paredes is a hold — skill sits right at league average.

His expected wOBA is .320, just .005 above the league average of .315, and he has 587 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .347, which looks better than the skill underneath, but the contact quality says the gap is not a talent bump. He averages 86 mph off the bat with a 28% hard-hit rate, both below league, so the surface line is running ahead of what the bat is doing. What keeps him afloat is his command of the strike zone: a 13.1% strikeout rate and a 6.6% swinging-strike rate, both well better than league. His expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample. Nothing here is unstable, and nothing here is a buy. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.7%−0.8%vs his ~5.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.320)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.0 mph
86.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −3.0 mphvs his norm —
428 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.0%
28.0%*
lg avg 40.0% −12.0%vs his norm —
428 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.7%
norm4.7%*
lg avg 8.0% −3.3%vs his norm −0.8%
428 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.320
.320*
lg avg .315 +.005vs his norm —
587 / 160 PA
wOBA.347
believable since May 25.347*
lg avg .315 +.032vs his norm —
587 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 22.0% −8.9%vs his norm —
587 / 60 PA
Walk %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 8.5% +2.2%vs his norm —
587 / 120 PA
BABIP.271
norm.271*
lg avg .295 −.024vs his norm +.011 BABIP is above his ~.260 normexpect it to fall.
428 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 11.0% −4.4%vs his norm —
587 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% −1.2%vs his norm —
587 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.7%→4.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.7% (signal) lifted to career ~5.5% → projected 4.9%.
BABIP 0.271→0.267 regressednoise.226 AVG — BABIP 0.271 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.263 (xBA 0.243) → 0.267.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 55 G) over ~42 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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