226 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Cam Smith
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Smith is a buy — contact quality is trending up, line is real.
His expected wOBA is .346 — .031 above league average and stable over 226 plate appearances, well past the 160-PA reliability threshold. His actual wOBA of .298 actually underperforms that, so the surface looks cold, but it is not the skill. The skill is the contact quality, and it is stepping up. His hard-hit rate is 43.2% and his barrel rate is 13.7%, both above league and on a rising trajectory. He has enough batted balls for those to be real. The strikeout rate (26.5%) is a touch high, but that is a known tradeoff. The gap between his expected and actual wOBA will close as the bounces catch up. Buy.
Buy
med0.66
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.346, +0.031 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL139 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL139 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL139 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.346
lg avg .315 ▲+.031trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL226 / 160 PA
wOBA.298
lg avg .315 ▼−.017trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL226 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL226 / 60 PA
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL226 / 120 PA
BABIP.278
lg avg .295 ▼−.017too early to trust
NOISE139 / 800 BIP