Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryLogan
100K ←83
4.29ERA →3.95
1.34WHIP →1.31
3–6W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryLogan
64K ←47
5.55ERA →4.82
1.39WHIP1.39
3W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.337 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.39 is +0.29 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Logan Webb
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.95)
Aaron Nola: 100 K / 4.29 ERA. Logan Webb: 83 K / 3.95 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).