MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Logan Webb

SF·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.09); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.09WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0

Webb is a hold — league average across the board, nothing unstable.

His expected ERA is 4.09, essentially level with the league average of 4.10, and the sample behind it is well past the point where the number becomes reliable. Nothing underneath pushes it either direction. He gives up almost no barrels — 5.8% against a league average of 8.0% — and his hard-hit rate allowed (38.9%) sits just under league, so the contact he allows is not the problem. The trade-off is a modest strikeout rate (20.1%) and a fastball that averages 92.3 mph, below league. He balances that with a 6.1% walk rate and a chase rate of 32.9% that runs above league. The profile holds together without a luck stat inflating or deflating anything. No baseline or trend data is available yet, so this call rests on the first stable sample. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.1%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~22.7% career norm
  • Walk %6.1%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
38.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
481 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
481 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
668 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
668 / 200 TBF
ERA4.31
4.31*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.21vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
160.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.1%
norm20.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
668 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.1%
norm6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
668 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
481 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
668 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.9%
32.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
668 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
92.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
2488 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.1%→20.7%signal0 K — K% 20.1% (signal) lifted to career ~22.7% → projected 20.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal4.09 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.09 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.1% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.09 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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