week 10
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
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Logan Webb
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Webb is a sell — skill below league with no luck to recover.
His expected ERA is 4.40, which is 0.30 above league average, and that gap has been widening — it has stepped up across the sample. His actual ERA will probably follow, because there is no luck story hiding the skill. He allows hard contact 47.5% of the time, 7.5 points above league average, and that number is reliable after 158 batted balls. His strikeout rate is a tick under league average, so he is not missing bats to compensate. The walk rate is near average, meaning he is not hurting himself with free passes — the problem is contact quality. The line is what it looks like: a below-average starter whose ERA will catch up to the underlying numbers. Sell.
Sell
med0.64
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.40 +0.30 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL158 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL158 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL228 / 200 TBF
xERA4.40
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.30trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL228 / 200 TBF
ERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72too early to trust
NOISE52.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL228 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL228 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.331
lg avg .295 ▲+.036too early to trust
NOISE158 / 800 BIP