MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Logan Webb

SF·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.96); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 53ERA 3.96WHIP 1.29W 1–3SV 0

Webb is a hold — league average and stable.

His expected ERA is 3.96, which is essentially league average — just 0.14 below the 4.10 mark — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA likely tracks similarly, as no unstable luck metric is inflating or deflating the line. His barrel rate allowed is well below league (5.3% vs. 8.0%), and his xwOBA allowed is a tick below .315. But his strikeout rate (19.4%) and swinging-strike rate (9.6%) are both below league, limiting upside. There is no signal that he is breaking out or falling off. If you own him, he is a stable rotation piece. If you don't, there is no edge to chase. Hold. With a 53 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP line, he's a stable but unexciting drop-tier streamer, not a must-roster arm.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.4%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~22.7% career norm
  • Walk %6.3%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.96)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
301 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
301 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
412 / 200 TBF
xERA3.96
3.96*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.14vs his norm —
412 / 200 TBF
ERA3.86
3.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
100.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.4%
norm19.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
412 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
412 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.281
.281*
lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
301 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
412 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
412 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
1494 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.4%→20.5%signal53 K — K% 19.4% (signal) lifted to career ~22.7% → projected 20.5% over ~56 remaining IP.
xERA 3.96signal3.96 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.96 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop53 K ROS, 3.96 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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