week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—
Clay Holmes
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.39 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 81ERA 3.78WHIP 1.33W 5–10SV 0
Holmes is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %8.4%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~9.9% career norm
- Strikeout %20.9%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
150 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
150 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
215 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —
215 / 200 TBF
ERA2.39
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.71vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
52.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
215 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
215 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.252
lg avg .295 ▼−.043vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.9%→21.6%signal81 K — K% 20.9% (signal) lifted to career ~22.4% → projected 21.6% over ~92 remaining IP.
xERA 3.78signal3.78 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.78 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.4% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role5-10 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep81 K ROS, 3.78 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.