week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Clay Holmes
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.86 is 0.57 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.88 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.86WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0
Holmes is a sell-high — the ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.6%—−3.8% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm
- Walk %10.0%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~9.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.86 is 0.57 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
296 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
296 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
419 / 200 TBF
xERA3.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —
419 / 200 TBF
ERA3.29
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.81vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
101.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm −3.8% ▼
419 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
419 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
296 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
419 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
419 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
1613 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.6%→19.8%signal0 K — K% 18.6% (signal) lifted to career ~22.4% → projected 19.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.86signal3.86 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.86 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.0% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.86 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.