Rest of Season Projection
ClayCategoryLogan
81K →95
3.78ERA ←4.07
1.33WHIP →1.29
5–10W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
ClayCategoryLogan
45K ←30
2.39ERA ←2.74
1.10WHIP →1.04
4W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Logan Henderson
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.90)
Holmes projects for 3.77 ERA / 82 K vs Henderson's 4.07 ERA / 96 K. The ERA gap supports Holmes, but his K rate trails. Sell-high window vs hold verdicts align.