MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Logan Henderson

MIL·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy stable xERA 2.74, 1.36 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.74WHIP 1.02W 0–0SV 0

Henderson is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and earned.

His expected ERA is 2.74, well below the league average of 4.10, and that number has been stepping down across the season rather than bouncing around. He strikes out 29.6% of batters and walks just 5.1% — both well past the point where those rates become reliable, and both on the right side of league average. He gets swings on 14.1% of pitches outside the zone's neighborhood and misses bats at a 14.1% swinging-strike clip, above the 11% league mark. Nothing here is being propped up by luck on balls in play; the contact he allows is genuinely weak — .257 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average. The fastball sits 93.1 mph, below league, but the command and the swing-and-miss say the results are his. Buy. 0 K ROS is a wait, but a 2.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP make him an asset worth acquiring now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.6%—−3.7% ▼vs his ~33.3% career norm
  • Walk %5.1%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.74, 1.36 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
241 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
241 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.257
.257*
lg avg .315 ▼−.058vs his norm —
371 / 200 TBF
xERA2.74
2.74*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.36vs his norm —
371 / 200 TBF
ERA2.47
2.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.63vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
98.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.6%
norm29.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm −3.7% ▼
371 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.1%
norm5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
371 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.221
.221*
lg avg .295 ▼−.074vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
241 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
14.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
371 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
371 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.1 mph
93.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
1505 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.6%→30.9%signal0 K — K% 29.6% (signal) lifted to career ~33.3% → projected 30.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.74signal2.74 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.74 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.1% + contactsignal1.02 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.273 gives a 1.02 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.74 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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