Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryCam
102K →114
4.26ERA →2.75
1.33WHIP →1.05
3–6W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryCam
64K →81
5.55ERA →1.50
1.39WHIP →0.85
3W →7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.34 is +0.24 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Cam Schlittler
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.75 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Nola: 105 K / 4.24 ERA. Cam Schlittler: 117 K / 2.74 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).