week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Connelly Early
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Early is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
His ERA sits at 2.95, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. The number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against, which is .248 — 47 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 170. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.65, a full 1.70 runs higher than the surface number, and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. He allows more hard contact than league average (42.9% hard-hit, 12.4% barrels) and his expected wOBA allowed is .338, above league average. His strikeout and walk rates are near league average, so there is no elite stuff to mask the regression. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.248 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.65 is 1.70 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL170 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL170 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.338
lg avg .315 ▲+.023trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL254 / 200 TBF
xERA4.65
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.55trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL254 / 200 TBF
ERA2.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.15too early to trust
NOISE61 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL254 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL254 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.248
lg avg .295 ▼−.047too early to trust
NOISE170 / 800 BIP