week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Connelly Early
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.30); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 55ERA 4.23WHIP 1.31W 3–7SV 0
Early is a hold — league-average, stable, no story here.
ROS projects K 57 YTD → 55 ROS, ERA 2.95 YTD → 4.23 ROS, WHIP 1.16 YTD → 1.31 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.8%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~25.8% career norm
- Walk %8.7%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
254 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
254 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
ERA3.44
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
91.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
390 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
390 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
254 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1528 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.8%→24.5%signal55 K — K% 23.8% (signal) lifted to career ~25.8% → projected 24.5% over ~57 remaining IP.
xERA 4.30signal4.23 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 61 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop55 K ROS, 4.23 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.