MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Connelly Early
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Connelly Early

WSH·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.32); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 12ERA 4.24WHIP 1.31W 1–1SV 0

Early is a hold — league average, nothing unstable either way.

His expected ERA is 4.32, right around the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Everything underneath it is telling the same story. He strikes out 23.8% of batters and walks 8.7%, both close to league. His expected wOBA allowed is .320 against a .315 league mark. He gives up a few more barrels than average, 10.6% against 8.0%, and his hard-hit rate allowed is basically league. One thing worth watching: his xERA has been stepping up across the sample, so the run prevention is drifting the wrong way rather than holding flat. But nothing here is unstable, and there is no luck stat inflating or deflating the line. Hold. With a 12 K / 4.24 ERA line ahead, this is a fringe deep-league hold at best — droppable whenever a streamer with upside appears.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.8%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~25.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.7%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.32)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
254 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
254 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
xERA4.32
4.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.22vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
ERA3.44
3.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
91.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
norm23.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
390 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
390 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
.277*
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
254 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1528 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.8%→24.5%signal12 K — K% 23.8% (signal) lifted to career ~25.8% → projected 24.5% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.32signal4.24 ERA — xERA 4.32 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 61 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.24 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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