Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategorySean
105K ←100
4.44ERA →3.63
1.30WHIP →1.27
6–12W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategorySean
57K →60
2.95ERA ←3.72
1.16WHIP →1.13
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
Sean Burke
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.63, 0.47 below league — production is earned
Connelly Early: 105 K / 4.44 ERA. Sean Burke: 100 K / 3.63 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).