Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryRyan
99K →108
4.46ERA →4.15
1.30WHIP →1.19
5–12W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryRyan
57K →75
2.95ERA ←3.52
1.16WHIP →1.14
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.65 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Ryan Weathers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.17)
Connelly Early: 99 K / 4.46 ERA. Ryan Weathers: 108 K / 4.15 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).