week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Ryan Weathers
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.39); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 64ERA 4.29WHIP 1.21W 1–3SV 0
Weathers is a hold — xERA near league and stable.
ROS projects K 75 YTD → 64 ROS, ERA 3.52 YTD → 4.29 ROS, WHIP 1.14 YTD → 1.21 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.9%—+5.8% ▲vs his ~21.1% career norm
- Walk %6.6%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.39)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
270 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
270 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.324
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
409 / 200 TBF
xERA4.39
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.29vs his norm —
409 / 200 TBF
ERA4.15
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
97.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm +5.8% ▲
409 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
409 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
270 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
409 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
409 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
1618 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.9%→25.0%signal64 K — K% 26.9% (signal) tempered to career ~21.1% → projected 25.0% over ~58 remaining…
xERA 4.39signal4.29 ERA — xERA 4.39 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 64 IP.
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep64 K ROS, 4.29 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.