MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryan Weathers
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Ryan Weathers

NYY·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.32); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.24WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0

Weathers is a hold — near-league skill, nothing unstable underneath

His xERA of 4.32 sits a hair above the league mark of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact he allows lands near league in every direction that matters: a .319 expected wOBA allowed against .315, a 40.6% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, an 8.6% barrel rate against 8.0%. The one place he separates is in the count — he strikes out 25.2% of batters and walks 6.7%, both better than league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 12.1% backs that up. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, so the run prevention is drifting the wrong way, but it is drifting toward average rather than past it. Nothing here is being propped up or dragged down by luck. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.2%—+4.1% ▲vs his ~21.1% career norm
  • Walk %6.7%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.32)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.6%
40.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
384 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
384 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.319
.319*
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
568 / 200 TBF
xERA4.32
4.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.22vs his norm —
568 / 200 TBF
ERA3.60
3.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
137.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.2%
norm25.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +4.1% ▲
568 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
568 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
.307*
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
384 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
568 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.9%
28.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
568 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
2281 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.2%→24.1%signal0 K — K% 25.2% (signal) tempered to career ~21.1% → projected 24.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.32signal4.24 ERA — xERA 4.32 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 64 IP.
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.24 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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