Rest of Season Projection
ClayCategoryRyan
80K →102
3.79ERA ←4.20
1.33WHIP →1.19
4–10W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
ClayCategoryRyan
45K →75
2.39ERA ←3.52
1.10WHIP ←1.14
4W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.79 is 1.40 above the ERA — regression coming
Ryan Weathers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.26)
Clay Holmes: 80 K / 3.79 ERA. Ryan Weathers: 102 K / 4.20 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).