Rest of Season Projection
BaileyCategoryConnelly
76K →90
4.21ERA ←4.41
1.31WHIP ←1.32
6–12W5–11
0SV0
Current Season
BaileyCategoryConnelly
46K →57
4.59ERA →2.95
1.22WHIP →1.16
6W ←5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bailey Ober
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.27)
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.57 is 1.27 above the ERA — regression coming
Bailey Ober: 76 K / 4.21 ERA. Connelly Early: 90 K / 4.41 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).