week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY
Bailey Ober
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
flipped from BUY on July 28, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.39); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 38ERA 4.29WHIP 1.31W 3–6SV 0
Ober is a hold — league-average skill with no edge or risk.
ROS projects K 46 YTD → 38 ROS, ERA 4.59 YTD → 4.29 ROS, WHIP 1.22 YTD → 1.31 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.5%—−5.7% ▼vs his ~23.2% career norm
- Walk %6.4%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.39)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —
257 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
257 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
342 / 200 TBF
xERA4.39
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.29vs his norm —
342 / 200 TBF
ERA4.56
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −5.7% ▼
342 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
342 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
257 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
342 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
342 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo88.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−5.7 mphvs his norm —
1283 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→19.6%signal38 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~23.2% → projected 19.6% over ~49 remaining IP.
xERA 4.39signal4.29 ERA — xERA 4.39 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 67 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop38 K ROS, 4.29 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.