MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bailey Ober
week 12
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Bailey Ober

MIN·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from BUY
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.25); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 79ERA 4.20WHIP 1.31W 6–12SV 0

Ober is a hold — league average, nothing pulling either way.

His expected ERA sits at 4.25, just above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The ERA is consistent with the underlying skill — no luck story to buy or sell. His strikeout rate (16.4%) is markedly below league average, while his walk rate (6.4%) is better than average, but neither metric is extreme enough to drive a verdict. He allows barrels at a slightly elevated rate, but his hard-hit suppression is solid. The xERA has been stepping up across his starts, yet remains in a neutral band. There is no signal to buy and no signal to sell. If you own him, hold; if you don't, this isn't where the edge is. Hold. 79 K with a 4.20 ERA / 1.31 WHIP makes Ober a deep-league hold — no edge to add or drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.4%—−6.8% ▼vs his ~23.2% career norm
  • Walk %6.4%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.25)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.7%
32.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —
214 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
214 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
281 / 200 TBF
xERA4.25
4.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.15vs his norm —
281 / 200 TBF
ERA4.59
4.59*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.49vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
66.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.4%
norm16.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm −6.8% ▼
281 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
281 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
.254*
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
214 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.4%→19.2%signal79 K — K% 16.4% (signal) lifted to career ~23.2% → projected 19.2% over ~97 remaining IP.
xERA 4.25signal4.20 ERA — xERA 4.25 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 67 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role6-12 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep79 K ROS, 4.20 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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