Rest of Season Projection
BaileyCategoryClay
79K →81
4.20ERA →3.78
1.31WHIP ←1.33
6–12W ←5–10
0SV0
Current Season
BaileyCategoryClay
46K ←45
4.59ERA →2.39
1.22WHIP →1.10
6W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bailey Ober
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.25)
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Bailey Ober: 79 K / 4.20 ERA. Clay Holmes: 81 K / 3.78 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).