Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryMatthew
90K ←77
4.41ERA →4.11
1.32WHIP →1.29
5–11W ←4–8
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryMatthew
57K ←31
2.95ERA ←6.00
1.16WHIP ←1.29
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.57 is 1.27 above the ERA — regression coming
Matthew Boyd
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.24)
Connelly Early: 90 K / 4.41 ERA. Matthew Boyd: 77 K / 4.11 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).