MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · July 30, 2026
Portrait of Connelly Early
Connelly Early
WSH · P
Change to
Matthew Boyd
CHC · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Connelly Early wins 2 (ERA, W); Matthew Boyd wins 2 (K, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Connelly Early
94.0
Matthew Boyd
92.7
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Connelly Early
11.1%
Matthew Boyd
12.9%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Connelly Early
23.8%
Matthew Boyd
22.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Connelly Early
31.4%
Matthew Boyd
32.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Connelly Early
40.9%
Matthew Boyd
41.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Connelly Early
10.6%
Matthew Boyd
9.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Connelly Early
.321
Matthew Boyd
.323
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Connelly Early
27.22
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.95
4.27
Matthew Boyd
27.22
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.00
4.31
WHIPlower is better
Connelly Early
1.091.38
now 1.16
1.31
Matthew Boyd
1.091.38
now 1.29
1.29

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Connelly Early
4067.40
now 57
45
Matthew Boyd
4067.40
now 31
51
Winshigher is better
Connelly Early
.8006.20
now 5
25
Matthew Boyd
.8006.20
now 2
25

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · leans sellConnelly Early — hold.conf 0.60
SellMatthew Boyd — sell.conf 0.65
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