week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL
Matthew Boyd
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
flipped from SELL on September 27, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.66 is 0.75 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.46WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0
Boyd is a sell-high — his ERA is propped up by luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.5%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
- Walk %7.5%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.66 is 0.75 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
378 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
378 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
520 / 200 TBF
xERA4.66
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.56vs his norm —
520 / 200 TBF
ERA3.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
126.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
520 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
520 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
378 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.0%vs his norm —
520 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
520 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
1957 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→19.7%signal0 K — K% 18.5% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 19.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.66signal4.46 ERA — xERA 4.66 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 24 IP.
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.46 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.