week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Matthew Boyd
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.22); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 79ERA 4.10WHIP 1.29W 4–9SV 0
Boyd is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable.
ROS projects K 31 YTD → 79 ROS, ERA 6.00 YTD → 4.10 ROS, WHIP 1.29 YTD → 1.29 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %31.0%—+8.2% ▲vs his ~22.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.22)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.8%vs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
100 / 200 TBF
xERA4.22
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.12vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
100 / 200 TBF
ERA6.00
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.90vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
24 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.0%vs his norm +8.2% ▲
100 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −1.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.3% norm — expect it to rise.
100 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.377
lg avg .295 ▲+.082vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
63 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.0%→25.6%signal79 K — K% 31.0% (signal) tempered to career ~22.8% → projected 25.6% over ~74 remaining…
xERA 4.22noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.22 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 4.10 at 24 IP.
BB% 6.0% + contactnoise1.29 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep79 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.