MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Matthew Boyd

CHC·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
flipped from SELL on July 28, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.39); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 52ERA 4.29WHIP 1.29W 2–5SV 0

Boyd is a hold — league-average skill meets a rising xERA.

His xERA is 4.39, up against a league average of 4.10 — close enough to call it roughly average, and the sample of 246 batters faced is past stabilization. His actual ERA may bounce around, but the underlying numbers give no reason to believe he is over- or underperforming. xwOBA allowed sits at .323, essentially league average. Contact quality allowed is near average: hard-hit rate 41.8%, barrel rate 9.4%, both within a percentage point of league norms. He does generate chases and whiffs at above-average rates (32.7% chase, 12.9% swinging-strike), but his fastball velocity is below average. And his xERA has been stepping up across the sample, so there is no hidden improvement to exploit. There is no edge here on either side. Hold. With 52 K and 4.29 ERA for a 2-5 record, he's a streaming-only option, not a must-hold drop-tier arm.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.4%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
  • Walk %6.9%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.39)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.8%
41.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
170 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
170 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
246 / 200 TBF
xERA4.39
4.39*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.29vs his norm —
246 / 200 TBF
ERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.4%
norm22.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
246 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
246 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.305
.305*
lg avg .295 ▲+.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
170 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
246 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.7%
32.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
246 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
92.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
955 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.4%→22.6%signal52 K — K% 22.4% (signal) held to career ~22.8% → projected 22.6% over ~40 remaining IP.
xERA 4.39signal4.29 ERA — xERA 4.39 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 24 IP.
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop52 K ROS, 4.29 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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