Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryMacKenzie
105K →111
4.44ERA →3.98
1.30WHIP ←1.34
6–12W ←4–10
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryMacKenzie
57K →65
2.95ERA ←3.96
1.16WHIP ←1.19
5W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
MacKenzie Gore
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.98)
Connelly Early: 105 K / 4.44 ERA. MacKenzie Gore: 111 K / 3.98 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).