MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of MacKenzie Gore
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

MacKenzie Gore

TEX·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.92); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 13ERA 3.92WHIP 1.34W 1–1SV 0

Gore is a hold — near-average skill, nothing unstable either way.

His xERA is 3.92, a hair below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters — 684 — for that number to be reliable. The contact quality he allows is right at the league line: 41.2% hard-hit, 8.1% barrels, .306 expected wOBA allowed, all within a rounding error of average. He strikes out 24.9% of batters and walks 9.2%, a touch better and a touch worse than league, and those offset. His swinging-strike rate of 12.9% supports the strikeout number. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is a mild positive, but it has moved him to average, not past it. There is no luck stat inflating or dragging the line, and no skill gap to exploit. Hold. 13 K and a 3.92 ERA the rest of the way is droppable in standard leagues — deep-league streaming-only.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.9%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~25.6% career norm
  • Walk %9.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~9.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.2%
41.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
444 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
444 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
684 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
3.92*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —
684 / 200 TBF
ERA4.51
4.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
157.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.9%
norm24.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
684 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
norm9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
684 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.304
.304*
lg avg .295 ▲+.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
444 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
684 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.7%
30.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
684 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
2715 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.9%→25.0%signal13 K — K% 24.9% (signal) held to career ~25.6% → projected 25.0% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.92signal3.92 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.92 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.2% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop13 K ROS, 3.92 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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