MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of MacKenzie Gore
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

MacKenzie Gore

TEX·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.88); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 59ERA 3.88WHIP 1.32W 2–5SV 0

Gore is a hold — league-average skill, nothing to buy or sell.

His expected ERA is 3.88 — just barely below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is a positive sign, but it still sits in a neutral range. His strikeout rate is above league average at 25.7%, and his swinging-strike rate is also elevated, so the stuff is real. However, he walks 9.2% of batters, a tick above league average, and his contact quality allowed is roughly neutral: hard-hit rate and barrel rate are close to league norms. No single metric is far enough from typical to buy regression or expect a breakout. If you own him, this is the level he is at. If you do not, there is no edge here. Hold. 59 K with 3.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP is a streaming-only ceiling in shallow formats; hold in deeper leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %9.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~9.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %25.7%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~25.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.88)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.8%
44.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
290 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
290 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
448 / 200 TBF
xERA3.88
3.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.22vs his norm —
448 / 200 TBF
ERA4.63
4.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.53vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
105 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.7%
norm25.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
448 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
norm9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
448 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
.297*
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
290 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
448 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.5%
30.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
448 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
95.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
1790 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.7%→25.7%signal59 K — K% 25.7% (signal) tempered to career ~25.6% → projected 25.7% over ~56 remaining…
xERA 3.88signal3.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.2% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop59 K ROS, 3.88 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups