TEX

xERA 3.22 and .279 xwOBA allowed — ERA is real

xERA 3.49 says better than the 3.93 ERA shows.

97.3 mph fastball, 29.9% K — xERA says 3.54 real

15.2 barrel rate and 91.7 exit velo carry the profile.

51% hard-hit, .350 xwOBA — contact metrics carry the profile.

48% hard-hit and a 0.347 xwOBA that isn't luck

50.8% hard-hit with 11.3% barrels; contact carries the buy

Barrel rate 11.6% with xwOBA .333 backs the breakout

2.74 ERA hides 4.06 xERA and 17% strikeout rate

2.89 ERA hides a .242 BABIP-against mirage

.177 BABIP props up a 1.85 ERA; xERA says 2.51

82.4 mph exit velo and 1.4% barrels — empty average.

xERA 4.85 with a 10% walk rate inflating the damage

xERA 4.59 with no luck gap — the profile is the problem.

xwOBA .255 with a 28% strikeout rate — no contact floor.

Zero barrels, 21% hard-hit — no power path at all.

xwOBA .268 with 87 mph exit velo; contact can't carry it.

xwOBA .275 with 87.8 mph exit velo — contact drags

xwOBA .279 with no luck gap — all real decline.

88 mph exit velo and a 25% K rate at catcher.