TEX

97.3 mph and 30% Ks; 4.21 ERA hides 3.47 xERA

3.57 xERA with sub-7% walks beats the 4.10 league mark

49% hard-hit with a .348 xwOBA — contact is the skill.

50.9% hard-hit with a 92 mph average exit velo

50% hard-hit with .338 xwOBA; contact skill is real

xwOBA .283 allowed, but a .318 BABIP hides a 3.35 xERA

48.9% hard-hit with a .254 BABIP — that gap closes.

2.86 ERA masks a 3.87 xERA; .240 BABIP is the whole gap.

2.41 ERA hides a 15.5% strikeout rate and .240 BABIP

BABIP-against .184 won't hold; 30.6% K rate is real

83 mph exit velo, 1.4% barrels — contact won't hold

xERA 4.86 with a 9.9% walk rate — nothing fluky.

21.4% K rate and a 9.5% walk rate — no upside here

xwOBA .267 with mediocre pop — wOBA overstates the bat

16% strikeouts, 0.278 BABIP propping up a 3.64 ERA.

xwOBA .267 with 86.8 mph exit velo — thin contact profile.

xwOBA .269 — weakest catcher contact in the league.

84.7 mph exit velo, zero barrels, .270 xwOBA — contact can't carry it.

87.6 mph exit velo, 35% hard-hit — the power just isn't there

xwOBA .295 and 25.3% strikeouts; wOBA barely over skill.

Barrel rate 5.9% and wOBA outrunning xwOBA by 24 points.