week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jalen Beeks
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.70); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 18ERA 3.76WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Beeks is a hold — league average with nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 18 YTD → 18 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.6%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~21.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.70)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
84 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
84 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.363
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 200 TBF
xERA5.70
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.60vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 200 TBF
ERA3.81
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
26 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
113 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −1.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.9% norm — expect it to rise.
113 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.289
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.0%vs his norm —
113 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
113 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
407 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.6%→20.3%signal18 K — K% 18.6% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 20.3% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 5.70noise3.76 ERA — xERA 5.70 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.