MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
362 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Corey Seager

TEX·SS
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xwOBA 0.354, +0.039 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.68
ROSHR 1AVG .219R 5RBI 5SB 0

Seager is a buy — the contact is climbing and the sample is real

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the season and now sits at 48.9%, nearly nine points above the league average of 40.0%, and that number is past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. His expected wOBA is .354 — .039 above the league average of .315 — and his 362 plate appearances clear the threshold for trusting that figure. His actual wOBA is .325, so his production is earned, not propped up by luck. He walks 11.9% of the time, more than three points above league, which gives him a floor even when the batting average dips. Only 91.7 mph average exit velocity looks merely good rather than elite. The trajectory is moving in the right direction and the underlying skill is real. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %15.2%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~15.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.354, +0.039 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.7 mph
91.7 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
231 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.9%
48.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.9%vs his norm —
231 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.2%
norm15.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
231 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.354
.354*
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —
362 / 160 PA
wOBA.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
362 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.5%
23.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
362 / 60 PA
Walk %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
362 / 120 PA
BABIP.256
norm.256*
lg avg .295 ▼−.039vs his norm −.055 ▼BABIP is below his ~.311 norm — expect it to rise.
231 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.3%
17.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
362 / 50 PA
Chase %27.4%
27.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
362 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 15.2%→15.2%signal1 HR — Barrel% 15.2% (signal) held to career ~15.2% → projected 15.2%.
BABIP 0.256→0.288 regressednoise.219 AVG — BABIP 0.256 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.301 (xBA 0.250) → 0.288.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 42 G) over ~42 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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