week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Nathan Eovaldi
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.30); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.23WHIP 1.22W 0–0SV 0
Eovaldi is a hold — average skill, nothing unstable underneath it.
ROS projects K 67 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 3.93 YTD → 4.23 ROS, WHIP 1.11 YTD → 1.22 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.5%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~21.0% career norm
- Walk %5.7%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~6.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
423 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
423 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
613 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
613 / 200 TBF
ERA4.20
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
145.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
613 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
613 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.296
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
423 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
613 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
613 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
2220 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.5%→22.9%signal0 K — K% 23.5% (signal) tempered to career ~21.0% → projected 22.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.30signal4.23 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 69 IP.
BB% 5.7% + contactsignal1.22 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 4.23 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.