week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Nathan Eovaldi
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.93); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 56ERA 3.93WHIP 1.18W 3–6SV 0
Eovaldi is a hold — near league average, stable, no edge.
ROS projects K 67 YTD → 56 ROS, ERA 3.93 YTD → 3.93 ROS, WHIP 1.11 YTD → 1.18 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.9%—+4.9% ▲vs his ~21.0% career norm
- Walk %5.6%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~6.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.93)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
310 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
310 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
463 / 200 TBF
xERA3.93
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.17vs his norm —
463 / 200 TBF
ERA4.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
111.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +4.9% ▲
463 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
463 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
310 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
463 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
463 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
1655 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.9%→24.4%signal56 K — K% 25.9% (signal) tempered to career ~21.0% → projected 24.4% over ~60 remaining…
xERA 3.93signal3.93 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.93 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.6% + contactsignal1.18 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep56 K ROS, 3.93 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.