94 PA · week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Cody Freeman
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP 0.294 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.233 is 0.059 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.70 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Freeman is a sell-high — the surface line is built on noise.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %1.4%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~4.1% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.294 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.233 is 0.059 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−6.0 mphvs his norm —
72 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %22.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−17.8%vs his norm —
72 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
72 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.233
lg avg .315 ▼−.082vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
94 / 160 PA
wOBA.292
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
94 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
94 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
94 / 120 PA
BABIP.294
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm +.047 ▲BABIP is above his ~.247 norm — expect it to fall.
72 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
94 / 50 PA
Chase %28.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
94 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.4%→3.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.4% (signal) lifted to career ~4.1% → projected 3.4%.
BABIP 0.294→0.372 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.294 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.188) → 0.372.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.