week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Tyler Alexander
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.35 sits 0.75 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.318 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.70 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.35WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0–0
Alexander is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a real arm
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.7%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~5.6% career norm
- Strikeout %19.2%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~19.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.35 sits 0.75 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.318 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
225 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
225 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
313 / 200 TBF
xERA3.35
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —
313 / 200 TBF
ERA3.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.40vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
73 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
313 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
313 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.318
lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
225 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
313 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
313 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
1200 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.2%→19.2%signal0 K — K% 19.2% (signal) tempered to career ~19.1% → projected 19.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.35signal3.35 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.35 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.