week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tyler Alexander
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.07); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 16WHIP 1.24ERA 3.67W 0–1SV 1–3
Alexander is a hold — near league average across the board.
ROS projects K 21 YTD → 16 ROS, WHIP 1.38 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.1%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~19.1% career norm
- Walk %7.0%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~5.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.07)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
120 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.274
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
172 / 200 TBF
xERA3.07
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.03vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
172 / 200 TBF
ERA2.21
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.89vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
172 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
172 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.336
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
120 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
651 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.1%→20.5%signal16 K — K% 22.1% (signal) tempered to career ~19.1% → projected 20.5% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 3.07noise3.67 ERA — xERA 3.07 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-3 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.67 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.