MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Alexander
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Tyler Alexander

TEX·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.22, 0.88 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.86
ROSK 4ERA 3.22WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0–1

Alexander is a buy — the contact suppression is earned

His expected ERA is 3.22, nearly a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to hold. The gap is not luck: his expected wOBA allowed is .279 against a .315 league mark, and both are past the point where they become reliable. He is not doing it with strikeouts — he fans just 20.4% of batters, a touch under league — he is doing it by keeping hitters off the barrel. His hard-hit rate allowed is 33.3% against a 40.0% league average, his barrel rate allowed is 4.2% against 8.0%. Those numbers have stepped down across the sample. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. With a 3.22 ERA and 1.32 WHIP ROS, the deep-league streamer is a hold worth adding where wins are scarce.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.0%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~5.6% career norm
  • Strikeout %20.4%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~19.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.22, 0.88 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
192 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.2%
4.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
192 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.279
believable since Aug 2.279*
lg avg .315 ▼−.036vs his norm —
270 / 200 TBF
xERA3.22
3.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.88vs his norm —
270 / 200 TBF
ERA3.30
3.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.4%
norm20.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
270 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
norm7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
270 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.330
.330*
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
192 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
270 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.8%
30.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
270 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.9 mph
91.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
1032 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.4%→19.9%signal4 K — K% 20.4% (signal) tempered to career ~19.1% → projected 19.9% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.22signal3.22 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.22 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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