MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 29, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Kilian
Caleb Kilian
PHI · P
Change to
Portrait of Tyler Alexander
Tyler Alexander
TEX · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
▶
◀
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Caleb Kilian wins 1 (WHIP); Tyler Alexander wins 1 (ERA); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
96.8
Tyler Alexander
91.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
13.6%
Tyler Alexander
9.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
26.8%
Tyler Alexander
19.2%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
32.7%
Tyler Alexander
30.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
34.9%
Tyler Alexander
33.3%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
8.5%
Tyler Alexander
4.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
.292
Tyler Alexander
.283
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Kilian
2.844.09
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.81
3.57
Tyler Alexander
2.844.09
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.12
3.35
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Kilian
1.061.47
now 1.15
1.32
Tyler Alexander
1.061.47
now 1.38
1.35

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Kilian
4040.60
now 29
0
Tyler Alexander
4040.60
now 21
0
Winshigher is better
Caleb Kilian
.0002.80
now 2
0–0
Tyler Alexander
.0002.80
now 1
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
BuyCaleb Kilian — buy.conf 0.76
Buy LowTyler Alexander — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.70
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