week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Cal Quantrill
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.87 is 1.01 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.81WHIP 1.20W 0–0SV 0
Quantrill is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %5.6%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
- Strikeout %18.3%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~17.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.87 is 1.01 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
330 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
330 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
443 / 200 TBF
xERA3.87
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.23vs his norm —
443 / 200 TBF
ERA2.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
443 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
443 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.240
lg avg .295 ▼−.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
330 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
443 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
443 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
1669 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→18.0%signal0 K — K% 18.3% (signal) tempered to career ~17.4% → projected 18.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.87signal3.81 ERA — xERA 3.87 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 5.6% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.272 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.