MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Cal Quantrill
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
————————

Cal Quantrill

TEX·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Quantrill is a sell-high — his ERA is a BABIP mirage.

His ERA sits at 2.53, but the building blocks do not support that number. The driver is his BABIP-against of .270, which is 25 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 64. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 4.62 — over two runs higher than the surface. His 16.1% strikeout rate is well below league average, and his barrel rate allowed is 10.9% versus the league average of 8.0%; contact quality against him is actually worse than league. This is a pitcher whose surface ERA is being flattered by an unsustainable BABIP-against with no elite stuff to fall back on. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.62 is 2.09 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.5%
37.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL64 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.9%
10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL64 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
.337
lg avg .315 ▲+.022too early to trust
NOISE87 / 200 TBF
xERA4.62
4.62
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.52too early to trust
NOISE87 / 200 TBF
ERA2.53
2.53
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.57too early to trust
NOISE21.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.1%
16.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL87 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%too early to trust
NOISE87 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025too early to trust
NOISE64 / 800 BIP