week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Cal Quantrill
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.89 is 1.00 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.82WHIP 1.23W 0–1SV 0
Quantrill is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %6.0%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
- Strikeout %18.5%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~17.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.89 is 1.00 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
309 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
309 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
417 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
417 / 200 TBF
ERA2.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.21vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
102.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
417 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
417 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.242
lg avg .295 ▼−.053vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
309 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
417 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
417 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
1587 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→18.1%signal4 K — K% 18.5% (signal) tempered to career ~17.4% → projected 18.1% over ~7 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.82 ERA — xERA 3.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 6.0% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.