week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Cal Quantrill
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.241 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.58 is 1.47 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21WHIP 1.24ERA 3.71W 2–4SV 0
Quantrill is a sell-high — his ERA is a mirage.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.5%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~17.4% career norm
- Walk %6.7%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.241 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.58 is 1.47 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
147 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
147 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
193 / 200 TBF
xERA4.58
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.48vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
193 / 200 TBF
ERA3.11
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.99vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
193 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
193 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.241
lg avg .295 ▼−.054vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
193 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
193 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
732 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.5%→16.0%signal21 K — K% 14.5% (signal) lifted to career ~17.4% → projected 16.0% over ~29 remaining IP.
xERA 4.58noise3.71 ERA — xERA 4.58 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 1%…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.